Trump’s Tariffs Are Winning—Don’t Believe the Mainstream Media’s Fearmongering

By Juan Fermin, NoSocialism.com April 26, 2025

The Guardian’s April 26, 2025, article by Adam Gabbatt paints a grim picture of President Trump’s second term, claiming polls show widespread disapproval of his tariffs and economic policies, with Americans labeling his administration “scary” and “chaotic.” This narrative, echoed across mainstream media, attributes fears of inflation and economic collapse to Trump’s trade policies. But a closer look reveals this as the same biased playbook the media has used against Trump for years—fearmongering and distortion while ignoring facts that don’t fit their agenda. The reality is that Trump’s tariffs are working, just as they did in his first term, and the U.S. is stronger for it.

The Guardian cites polls claiming 70% of Americans believe Trump’s tariffs will drive up inflation, with 64% disapproving of his handling of the issue. But this fear stems not from reality but from the media’s relentless drumbeat of doom-and-gloom predictions. During Trump’s first term, he imposed a 25% tariff on steel in 2018. Media outlets screamed that prices would skyrocket, yet the data tells a different story: steel prices rose briefly for less than a month before returning to pre-tariff levels within weeks. They remained stable for nearly two years, and even after a later spike, steel prices today are lower than when the tariffs were implemented. If tariffs were the inflation boogeyman the media claims, why didn’t we see sustained price surges then? The Guardian conveniently omits this history, preferring to stoke fear over facts.

'The media’s obsession with “global interconnectedness” overlooks the strategic benefits of reducing reliance on ... China'

The article also frames America’s supposed “isolation” as a dire consequence of Trump’s policies, lamenting a 20% drop in New York City hotel bookings and an 11.6% decline in international visitors in March 2025. But this narrative ignores a critical reality: the U.S. has the smallest percentage of its GDP dependent on trade among major economies—only about 27% in 2024, compared to 60% for Germany. Trade disruptions, while inconvenient for some sectors, are far from catastrophic for the U.S. economy. The media’s obsession with “global interconnectedness” overlooks the strategic benefits of reducing reliance on foreign nations, especially those like China, which the U.S. has a lopsided trade relationship with.

'The media also fails to mention that China needs the USA far more than the U.S. needs China'

Speaking of China, the Guardian and its ilk seem to take Beijing’s side at every turn, warning that tariffs will make goods like iPhones “astronomically” expensive if manufactured domestically. Yet a deep dive into the numbers debunks this myth. Producing an iPhone in the U.S. would increase costs by about $50–$100 per unit due to higher labor costs, not the $10,000 price tag fearmongered by critics. With iPhones already retailing for $1,000+, this marginal increase is hardly a dealbreaker for consumers, especially when weighed against the benefits of domestic production—like job creation and supply chain security. The media also fails to mention that China needs the U.S. far more than the U.S. needs China. In 2024, the U.S. accounted for 16.5% of China’s exports, while China made up only 3.5% of U.S. exports. This imbalance gives Trump leverage, which he’s using effectively to win the trade war—despite media claims to the contrary.

'The media frames Trump ... as reckless, never acknowledging the benefits of reducing ties with a bully ...'

The Guardian’s selective reporting extends to geopolitics. It ignores China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea, where Beijing treats the region like its personal playground, militarizing reefs and harassing neighboring nations. This behavior has driven a massive military buildup in the region, with Japan developing advanced railgun technology and Vietnam, a former ally of China, pivoting to the U.S. and purchasing significant military assets in 2024. From a military perspective, decoupling from China isn’t isolation—it’s a strategic imperative to counter a growing threat. Yet the media frames Trump’s policies as reckless, never acknowledging the security benefits of reducing economic ties with a nation known to falsify its economic data and bully its neighbors.

'Trump’s tariffs are again strengthening U.S. manufacturing'

This bias isn’t new. The mainstream media has long used the same playbook to vilify Trump, from their coverage of the January 6th rioters—portrayed as terrorists while ignoring provocations by law enforcement—to their complicity in the lawfare against Trump, which has been exposed as a politically motivated sham. The Guardian’s article is just the latest chapter, amplifying fears of inflation and depression while ignoring evidence of Trump’s success. During his first term, tariffs revitalized American steel, with capacity utilization rising to 80% by 2019, a threshold for a financially viable domestic industry. Today, Trump’s tariffs are again strengthening U.S. manufacturing, with record tariff revenues of $2 billion daily in April 2025, according to posts on X, and consumer prices dropping for the first time since COVID.

'Americans aren’t scared of Trump—they’re scared of the media’s relentless fear campaign'

The Guardian wants you to believe Trump’s second term is a failure, but the data says otherwise. Inflation is down to 2.4%, oil prices have dropped 20%, and the Producer Price Index fell 0.4% in March 2025, beating forecasts. Americans aren’t scared of Trump—they’re scared of the media’s relentless fear campaign. It’s time to see through the bias and recognize that Trump’s tariffs are winning the trade war, securing America’s future, and proving that the U.S. can thrive without bending the knee to globalist dogma.

The Case for Solar Without the Tax Credit: Prioritizing Fiscal Responsibility

By Juan Fermin, NoSocialism.com

April 26, 2025

Solar energy empowers American homeowners to generate their own electricity, lower bills, and reduce reliance on monopoly utilities. Rooftop solar systems have proven their worth, keeping lights on during blackouts in Texas, wildfires in California, and hurricanes in Florida. These technologies align with conservative values of self-reliance and resilience, enabling families to take control of their energy needs without waiting on utilities or government aid. However, the federal investment tax credit (ITC) for solar, while well-intentioned, must be reconsidered in light of our nation’s fiscal crisis. There's a lot of support out there to keep these Tax Credits, but with annual deficits exceeding $1.9 trillion and a national debt surpassing $33 trillion, government spending must be curtailed to stabilize the economy and protect all Americans from the crushing effects of high interest rates.

The ITC, which offsets up to 30% of the cost of installing solar panels, is often framed as a pro-market policy. In reality, it’s a government subsidy that disproportionately benefits higher earners. Data shows the average income of households with residential solar installations exceeds $100,000, meaning the ITC largely subsidizes those who can already afford solar, make nearly double the average and adding to the federal deficit. Solar panel prices have plummeted by over 80% since 2010, making solar so affordable that most people can now finance a system over 15–20 years and end up with a payment that’s about the same—or even less—than their average electric bill. In Florida, for example, a homeowner with a $333 average monthly bill can finance a 14.5 kW system for around $344/month without the ITC, a gap that closes as electricity rates rise annually. People are increasingly motivated to own solar to achieve independence from the grid, avoid the grid’s annual rate increases, and, especially in Florida, ensure power during hurricane season outages. With solar prices continuing to fall practically every year, there’s little reason for the government to keep subsidizing an industry that can stand on its own.

"In 2024, the federal government spent over $700 billion on interest payments alone—more than the entire defense budget."

Continuing the ITC risks creating dependency, discouraging innovation, and propping up a mature industry that no longer needs it. More critically, it exacerbates our ballooning deficit. In 2024, the federal government spent over $700 billion on interest payments alone—more than the entire defense budget. The Congressional Budget Office projects deficits will average $2 trillion annually over the next decade, driving interest rates higher as the government competes for borrowing. High interest rates hurt everyone: families face steeper mortgage and auto loan payments, small businesses struggle to expand, and the cost of goods rises. For the average American—especially those earning far less than $100,000—these pressures outweigh the benefits of a tax credit that primarily aids wealthier households. By prioritizing fiscal discipline, we can lower interest rates, stabilize the economy, and create a rising tide that lifts all boats—not just those with solar panels.

Eliminating the ITC doesn’t mean abandoning solar. States can offer their own incentives, tailored to local needs, without adding to the federal deficit. Utilities can be pushed to streamline interconnection processes and fairly compensate homeowners for excess solar energy fed into the grid. Regulatory reforms, like cutting red tape for permitting and installation, would further reduce costs. These market-driven solutions align with conservative principles, fostering competition and innovation while keeping government out of the equation.

"The answer isn’t more federal spending—it’s breaking up monopolies, deregulating energy markets, and empowering consumers through choice."

Monopoly utilities, with their unchecked rate hikes and record profits, are a real problem. Pacific Gas and Electric’s $2.2 billion in 2023 profits, coupled with new fees and rate increases, shows how utilities exploit captive customers. But the answer isn’t more federal spending—it’s breaking up monopolies, deregulating energy markets, and empowering consumers through choice. Solar thrives in competitive environments, and homeowners shouldn’t need a tax credit to say “no” to utility greed.

Supporting solar means supporting ingenuity and independence, but it shouldn’t come at the expense of fiscal sanity. By phasing out the ITC, we can promote solar adoption through market reforms while tackling the deficit that threatens our economic future. High deficits and soaring interest rates hurt every American, from the solar-powered homeowner to the renter struggling with rising costs. It’s time to cut spending, unleash markets, and let solar shine on its own.

How Trump’s Tariffs Are Winning the Trade War with China

By Juan Fermin, NoSocialism.com

April 24, 2025

President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies have reshaped the U.S.-China economic battlefield, positioning America to come out on top in the ongoing trade war. Critics in the media and establishment think tanks warn that Trump’s tariffs—145% on Chinese goods, 10% globally—will cripple consumers and alienate allies. They’re wrong, just as they were in 2018 when they predicted runaway inflation from steel tariffs. Today, a manufacturing boom, curbs on China’s trade tricks, and Beijing’s economic vulnerabilities show that Trump’s strategy is delivering results. Trump recently extended a hand to China, but they're now acting like a petulant child who's toys have been taken away. While the war isn’t over, the U.S. holds the upper hand—here’s why.

Tariffs Work: A Proven Track Record

In 2018, Trump slapped a 25% tariff on steel, sparking media cries of inflation doom. Prices spiked for 30 days, then fell below pre-tariff levels by 2023, thanks to increased U.S. production and global supply adjustments (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Today’s tariffs are even more strategic. Since April 2025, a 10% global tariff (down from 10–90% threats) and a 145% levy on Chinese imports have generated $21 billion in revenue, with projections nearing $170 billion by year-end. This funds Trump’s tax cuts—no Social Security, overtime, or tip taxes—without ballooning deficits, despite the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) $200 billion estimate, which often misses dynamic growth (e.g., 2017 tax cut shortfalls 20% below CBO forecasts).

Critics like the Peterson Institute claim tariffs will cost households $1,700 annually. They’re off-base. Consumer electronics—73% of smartphones, 78% of laptops from China—are exempt, slashing cost estimates closer to $800 (Bloomberg, 2025) and even that may be an overestimation, considering that it's mostly on Toys and Apparel, items consumers can often forgo or cut back on to suit their budget. High-margin industries, like auto parts (where dealers charge $1,000 for $150 brakes), can absorb a 10% tariff without gouging consumers. The 145% Chinese tariff? It’s a negotiating tactic, not permanent, designed to drag Beijing to the table. In 2018, tariffs jumped from 3% to 17% with minimal inflation (1.8% CPI in 2019). History suggests markets will adjust again. China isn't the only game in town.

Reshoring: America’s Manufacturing Revival

Trump’s tariffs, paired with Biden’s CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts, have ignited a U.S. manufacturing renaissance, reducing reliance on China. The CHIPS Act alone has spurred over 100 projects worth $540 billion, with 50+ companies—Intel ($100 billion in Arizona, Ohio), TSMC ($65 billion in Arizona), Micron ($100 billion in New York)—building semiconductor plants across 28 states (Semiconductor Industry Association, 2025). Battery factories are booming, with 10 set to open in 2025 (e.g., LG Chem in Michigan) and 15–20 more by 2027, targeting 1,200 GWh capacity by 2030 (BloombergNEF, 2024). Steel and glass are back, too: Hyundai’s $1.5 billion Louisiana plant, Nucor’s $2.7 billion Arkansas mill, Steel Dynamics’ $1.9 billion Kentucky facility, and Dialum/Viracon’s glass factories in Florida signal a heavy industry revival.

This isn’t just about jobs—it’s about the middle class. The CHIPS Act will create 56,000 direct jobs and 300,000 indirect ones (SIA, 2021). Each manufacturing job generates 5–10 support roles so in reality it could be as high as over a half million indirect jobs (Economic Policy Institute), adding $15–25 billion in tax revenue annually by 2030 (NAM, 2024). Hyundai’s plant alone could yield $300–500 million in taxes. Unlike the globalization era, which hollowed out U.S. factories, Trump’s policies prioritize American workers over foreign economies.

Closing China’s Trade Loopholes

China claims it cut its U.S. export reliance from 19.8% to 12.8% (2018–2023). Don’t buy it. Much of this “reduction” is transshipment—Chinese goods relabeled in Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, or Cambodia to dodge tariffs. A Harvard study (2024) estimates 16% of Vietnam’s U.S. exports are transshipped Chinese products and that's JUST Vietnam! Trump’s response? High tariffs (46% on Vietnam, 49% on Cambodia) followed by a 90-day pause and 10% rate for compliant nations. The threat of high tariffs on Vietnam's manufacturing base moved them to now enforce strict factory inspections and “Made in Vietnam” label checks. Cambodia pledged tariff cuts (35% to 5%) and export oversight. Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore are tightening controls, too. All wins for Trump's strategy of isolating China.

These deals raise costs for Chinese goods, forcing them through U.S. tariffs—145% unless exempted. While enforcement isn’t perfect (China’s supply chain ties run deep), Trump’s pressure is dismantling Beijing’s workaround, ensuring fairer trade. Again, however Trumps target rate is probably closer to 25%. High enough to make "Made in America" more viable, but not so high as to completely shut down all trade.

China’s Economic Achilles’ Heel

China’s economy is faltering, amplifying U.S. leverage. Its real estate crisis ($300 billion Evergrande debt, 65 million vacant units), 15% youth unemployment, and loss-making EV sector (99/100 firms unprofitable) strain growth (4.6% GDP, 2024). Subsidies ($100 billion for steel, autos) prop up exports but drain resources. China needs U.S. dollars—its $295.4 billion U.S. trade surplus is critical for $3.2 trillion reserves and debt servicing.

Beijing’s diversification to ASEAN ($560 billion) and the EU ($525 billion) faces limits. ASEAN’s growth is strong, but the EU and Japan, with populations shrinking 6% and 0.5% yearly (Eurostat, OECD, 2024), won’t sustain China’s export machine. Food imports (50% of needs, including 100 million tons of soybeans) are another weak point. China’s 125% tariff on U.S. soybeans shifts demand to Brazil, but Brazil’s 150 million-ton limit leaves global gaps (400 million tons traded yearly). The U.S. can sell to the EU or India, maintaining leverage.

Strategic Gains Beyond Economics

China’s military buildup—400+ fighter jets, 20 warships, doubled missiles, 50% more satellites (Pentagon, 2024)—threatens Taiwan by 2027, justifying Trump’s hard line. Its South China Sea aggression alienates Vietnam (27 F-16 orders) and Japan ($7 billion naval buildup), creating U.S. openings. The Belt and Road’s debt traps (e.g., Sri Lanka’s port) spark regional backlash, amplifying Trump’s tariff-driven isolation of Beijing.

Could iPhones be made here? Yes, at a modest cost. Assembly labor in China ($24/unit) would rise to $240 in the U.S., but lower transport and tariffs cut the net increase to $165. Apple’s 44% margins can absorb a 10–15% price hike without losing share to Samsung AND still maintain the most profitable manufacturing operation on earth. Rare earths? The U.S. (Mountain Pass mine) and Australia (Lynas) can supply all needs, despite higher costs (USGS, 2024). China’s 80% share is a choice, not a necessity.

The Road Ahead

Trump hasn’t won the trade war outright—China’s $2.8 trillion reserves and ASEAN trade provide resilience. Inflation risks and supply chain dependencies linger. Initial high tariffs strained allies, but it was a move to get them to police China's transshipment abuses, AND IT WORKED! Hopefully the 10% rate restored goodwill. But Trump’s gains are undeniable: $170 billion in tariff revenue, a manufacturing boom, transshipment curbs, and pressure on China’s economy. Beijing may resist, but its dollar needs and global food constraints limit options. The U.S., with exports at 8% of GDP, can outlast China and in the end, hopefully we can cut a deal that STOPS China from supplying our enemies.

The media’s doom-and-gloom narrative—echoed by Krugman and Peterson—misses the mark, just as it did in 2018. Trump’s tariffs are rewriting the rules, bringing jobs home, and forcing China to rethink its game. The trade war’s endgame is unclear, but one thing’s certain: America’s back in the driver’s seat.

Re-examining the Genocide Accusation: A Legal and Contextual Analysis of Israel’s Gaza Campaign

The accusation that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza constitutes genocide is a serious charge that demands rigorous scrutiny under international law. Defined by the 1948 Genocide Convention, genocide requires specific intent to destroy a group, a threshold that necessitates examining Israel’s actions alongside the broader context, including the roles of Hamas, Egypt, and the Palestinian leadership’s consistent rejection of peace offers, including the 2020 Trump peace plan. While Gaza’s humanitarian crisis is profound, much of the suffering stems from Hamas’s exploitative tactics, including its profiteering from civilian casualties and its use of peace processes to rearm, Egypt’s restrictive border policies, and the failure to pursue economic alternatives that could deter violence. By analyzing the legal definition of genocide, Israel’s military conduct, Hamas’s manipulation of civilian infrastructure and peace plans, Egypt’s contribution to Gaza’s isolation, the history of rejected peace offers, and the methodologies behind casualty claims, this analysis argues that the genocide label oversimplifies a complex conflict, dilutes the term’s legal weight, and obstructs pathways to peace.

"From the River to the Sea"  Literally means GENOCIDALLY WIPE Israel off the Map

Understanding the Legal Definition of Genocide

The 1948 Genocide Convention defines genocide as acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group through killing, causing serious harm, creating unlivable conditions, preventing births, or transferring children. Specific intent is the cornerstone of any genocide accusation, distinguishing deliberate extermination from the unintended consequences of warfare. In Gaza, the central question is whether Israel’s campaign against Hamas reflects this intent or whether civilian casualties, however tragic, result from the complexities of urban combat, compounded by Hamas’s tactics, Egypt’s policies, and the Palestinian leadership’s rejection of peace opportunities. A rigorous assessment of intent is essential to determine whether the genocide accusation holds or risks undermining the term’s moral and legal significance.

"Hamas’s 2021 Charter endorses the use of human shields"

Contextualizing Israel’s Military Operations Amid Hamas’s Exploitative Tactics

Israel’s military campaign in Gaza unfolds in a uniquely challenging environment shaped by Hamas, a designated terrorist organization that has governed Gaza since 2007. Hamas has systematically embedded its military infrastructure within civilian areas, a strategy documented by UN reports. Over 500 kilometers of tunnels run beneath Gaza’s cities, and weapons stockpiles have been found in schools and hospitals, as verified by UNRWA audits. Hamas’s 2021 Charter endorses the use of human shields, deliberately placing civilians in harm’s way to complicate Israel’s targeting of combatants. This tactic serves a cynical dual purpose: it hinders Israel’s operations and, when civilian infrastructure is struck, fuels international outrage that Hamas exploits for propaganda and financial gain.

"Hamas leaders divert ... aid to fund ... mansions and luxury vehicles"

Hamas’s deliberate placement of weapons, underground bunkers, and military assets inside or beneath schools and hospitals is a calculated strategy to provoke civilian casualties. When Israel responds to Hamas’s attacks, strikes on these sites lead to accusations that Israel is targeting civilian infrastructure, amplifying sympathy for Hamas’s cause. This sympathy generates significant donations from international supporters and sympathetic governments, ostensibly to rebuild Gaza’s damaged schools and hospitals. However, reports indicate that Hamas leaders divert much of this aid to fund lavish lifestyles abroad, purchasing mansions and luxury vehicles in countries like Turkey, the UAE, and Yemen. This profiteering exacerbates Gaza’s suffering, as funds meant for civilian welfare are siphoned off, leaving essential infrastructure in disrepair and residents in poverty. It's one thing to make your money by siphoning off the Rich, but to amass wealth by profiting off suffering? That's simply Evil.

"Hamas dismantled parts of Gaza’s water delivery system, repurposing pipes to create homemade missiles"

Hamas’s actions have also directly undermined Gaza’s civilian infrastructure. In the mid-2000s, Hamas dismantled parts of Gaza’s water delivery system, repurposing pipes to create homemade missiles for attacks on Israel. This destruction has severely limited access to clean water, contributing to public health crises and worsening living conditions. By prioritizing military objectives and personal enrichment over civilian welfare, Hamas has inflicted significant harm on the population it claims to represent, a critical factor often overlooked in accusations against Israel.

Despite these challenges, Israel has implemented measures to mitigate civilian harm. Advanced warning systems, including leaflets and phone calls, alert residents to impending strikes, while “roof-knocking” protocols use non-lethal munitions to signal evacuation. Israel has facilitated humanitarian corridors and coordinated the delivery of over 230,000 tons of aid since October 7, 2023. These efforts, though imperfect, suggest an intent to target Hamas’s military capabilities rather than eradicate the Palestinian population, contrasting with the deliberate intent required for genocide.

"Israel has ... Advanced warning systems, including leaflets alert residents to impending strikes and facilitated humanitarian corridors"

Egypt’s Role in Gaza’s Isolation

While Israel’s border restrictions are frequently highlighted, Egypt’s policies have played a significant role in isolating Gaza and deepening its humanitarian crisis. Egypt maintains stricter control over its Rafah border crossing with Gaza than Israel does at its crossings. The Rafah crossing, Gaza’s primary link to the outside world, is often closed or heavily restricted, limiting the flow of goods, fuel, and people. Egypt’s control over the fuel supply through Rafah has contributed to chronic energy shortages, affecting hospitals, water treatment facilities, and daily life.

Egypt’s policies also exclude Gazans from economic opportunities. Unlike Israel, which increased work permits

for West Bank Palestinians by 400% during the conflict, Egypt prohibits Gazans from seeking employment within its borders. This restriction traps Gazans in economic stagnation, unable to access Egypt’s labor market despite proximity. Even more striking is the plight of Gazans and their descendants stranded on the Egyptian side of the border since the 1967 war. Denied the right to work or integrate into Egyptian society, these individuals remain in permanent limbo, facing ongoing poverty and exclusion. Egypt’s policies thus share responsibility for Gaza’s isolation and humanitarian challenges.

Scrutinizing Casualty Figures and Claims of “Destruction of Life”

Accusations of genocide often rely on high civilian casualty figures and claims that Israel has deliberately created unlivable conditions in Gaza. These claims require careful scrutiny, particularly given Hamas’s profiteering and Egypt’s restrictions. Casualty estimates vary widely. The Hamas-administered Gaza Health Ministry reports a civilian-to-combatant death ratio of roughly 1:1, but its figures lack independent verification and may serve Hamas’s propaganda efforts. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) estimate a 1:2 ratio based on post-strike audits, while the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) suggests a 1:1.5 ratio with partial verification. A 2023 RAND Corporation study notes that civilian casualty rates of 30-50% are typical in urban combat, indicating that Gaza’s figures, while tragic, align with the realities of such conflicts and do not alone suggest genocidal intent.

"Israel attempts to sustain civilian life despite the conflict’s constraints"

Claims of deliberately inflicted destructive conditions also warrant nuance. Hamas’s destruction of water infrastructure for missile production and its diversion of rebuilding funds to leaders’ personal wealth have directly undermined Gaza’s access to basic services. Egypt’s control over fuel supplies has exacerbated energy shortages, while Israel has taken steps to address some issues, such as reopening water pipelines in May 2024 and coordinating 38 field hospitals. These efforts complicate the narrative of a systematic intent to destroy Gaza’s population, as they reflect attempts to sustain civilian life despite the conflict’s constraints.

"Palestinians reject peace because they want Israel's 7.3 million Jews gone from the entire area and will accept nothing less."

Analyzing Intent Through Israel’s Actions and Palestinian Rejections

To assess whether Israel’s campaign reflects genocidal intent, its official communications, actions, and the history of peace negotiations are instructive. The Israeli War Cabinet has framed the conflict as a war against Hamas, not the Palestinian people, a stance reiterated in November 2023. Actions such as increasing work permits for West Bank Palestinians by 400% and providing medical treatment to Gazans in Israeli hospitals reinforce this position. The IDF’s 2022 Code of Ethics emphasizes a moral obligation to minimize civilian harm, and as of June 2024, the IDF has initiated 83 investigations into alleged misconduct. These measures suggest a focus on countering Hamas’s military threat rather than targeting Palestinians as a group.

"The absence of any Palestinian-initiated peace proposals further underscores this trend"

In contrast, the Palestinian leadership’s consistent rejection of peace offers that would have established a Palestinian state complicates the narrative of Israeli genocidal intent. Since the 1937 Peel Commission, Palestinian leaders have rejected numerous proposals because what they actually want is Israel's 7.3 million Jews, just gone from the entire area and will accept nothing less. There have been MANY offers , including the 1947 UN Partition Resolution, the 2000 Camp David and 2001 Taba talks, the 2008 Olmert offer, and the 2020 Trump peace plan, which proposed a Palestinian state alongside economic investments was also rejected by Palestinian leaders. During the period of relative calm following the plan’s proposal, Hamas exploited the opportunity to restock its missile arsenal and rebuild its military capabilities, culminating in renewed attacks on Israel. This pattern of rejection and rearmament, coupled with Hamas’s 2017 policy document that accepts a Palestinian state within 1967 borders but rejects Israel’s legitimacy and claims its territory, suggests that elements of Palestinian leadership prioritize conflict over statehood. The absence of any Palestinian-initiated peace proposals further underscores this trend, challenging claims that Israel alone is responsible for the conflict’s persistence.

"This pattern challenges the narrative that Israel’s actions alone constitute a genocidal campaign"

Legal Perspectives and Historical Context

Legal scholars provide clarity on the genocide accusation. Professor Eugene Kontorovich of George Mason Law argues that genocide requires evidence of systematic destruction, which is not supported by civilian casualties proportional to those expected in anti-terror operations. Ambassador Alan Baker notes that Hamas’s rejection of ceasefire offers and peace plans, including the 2020 Trump initiative, contradicts the genocide narrative by prolonging the conflict. The International Court of Justice (ICJ), in its March 2024 provisional measures, ordered Israel to prevent genocide but did not conclude that genocide was occurring, reflecting the need for further evidence. Historical comparisons provide context: the Srebrenica massacre (1995), with over 8,000 deaths in 10 days, and the Rwandan genocide (1994), with 800,000 deaths in 100 days, were ruled genocides due to clear intent and systematic extermination. Gaza’s conflict, with approximately 36,000 deaths over 240 days as of mid-2024, involves a different scale and context, and the ICJ has yet to issue a final ruling, as genocide cases typically require years of review.

"Accountability measures might include a special tribunal to investigate Hamas’s rocket attacks and diversion of aid"

The history of Palestinian rejections, including the 2020 Trump plan, informs the legal perspective. Hamas’s use of the plan’s negotiation period to rearm rather than engage in state-building efforts highlights a pattern of prioritizing military objectives over civilian welfare. This pattern challenges the narrative that Israel’s actions alone constitute a genocidal campaign, as it underscores the mutual failure to achieve a negotiated resolution.

A Path Forward: Accountability, Economic Transformation, and Regional Cooperation

Addressing Gaza’s crisis requires acknowledging the roles of all actors—Hamas’s profiteering, Egypt’s restrictions, and the Palestinian leadership’s rejection of peace offers, including the 2020 Trump plan—and moving beyond polarizing labels like “genocide.” An independent audit, potentially led by a joint UN-Arab League forensics team using blockchain-based documentation, could verify casualty figures and clarify responsibility. Accountability measures might include a special tribunal to investigate Hamas’s rocket attacks and diversion of aid, alongside an IDF transparency portal for strike vetting.

"If Gaza’s infrastructure were rebuilt with hotels and resorts, ... the returning population might resist Hamas’s destructive tactics"

A bold economic vision, such as transforming Gaza into a hub of luxury resorts and tourism as proposed in the Trump plan, could offer a path forward. While criticized as impractical, the idea of developing Gaza into a “new Riviera” merits consideration. If Gaza’s infrastructure were rebuilt with hotels and resorts, providing jobs and economic opportunities, the returning population might resist Hamas’s destructive tactics, fearing the loss of newfound prosperity. Such a transformation could deter Hamas from launching attacks that invite Israeli retaliation, as Gazans would have a stake in preserving their economic future. Regional cooperation, including Egypt easing border restrictions and integrating stranded Gazans, alongside Saudi normalization talks and Palestinian Authority security reforms, could support this vision. Reviving peace negotiations, with incentives for Palestinian acceptance of statehood proposals, could break the cycle of rejection and violence.

Conclusion

The humanitarian tragedy in Gaza demands urgent action, but labeling Israel’s campaign as genocide oversimplifies the conflict and ignores the significant contributions of Hamas, Egypt, and the Palestinian leadership to the region’s challenges. Hamas’s deliberate placement of military assets in schools and hospitals, destruction of water infrastructure, and diversion of rebuilding funds to fund lavish lifestyles in Turkey, the UAE, and Yemen have directly harmed Gazans while generating sympathy and donations for its cause. Egypt’s stringent border controls, refusal to allow Gazan employment, and exclusion of stranded Gazans and their descendants have deepened the territory’s isolation. The Palestinian leadership’s rejection of numerous peace offers—from the 1937 Peel Commission to the 2020 Trump peace plan and dozens of plans in between, which Hamas exploited to rearm rather than build a state—has perpetuated the conflict, undermining claims of Israeli genocidal intent. Furthermore, Gaza’s population has grown dramatically from approximately 60,000 in 1948 to over 2.1 million today, a demographic reality that starkly contradicts claims of genocide—if Israel were pursuing such a goal, this significant increase suggests a profound failure to achieve it. A balanced approach would prioritize precise legal terminology, contextualized analysis, and innovative solutions like economic transformation through tourism and regional cooperation to address root security and humanitarian concerns, paving the way for a lasting peace that upholds the dignity of all involved.